Year-end trading on Wall Street follows a familiar pattern, and the same question resurfaces once again: will the Santa Claus rally make an appearance?

The stretch between Christmas and the first trading days of January is historically known for the Santa Claus rally, a period when stocks have typically pushed higher amid lighter volumes, tax-driven trades and year-end optimism.

It's a pattern that's been debated, dismissed, and rediscovered for decades, yet the numbers keep pulling investors back in.

S&P 500's Santa Rally Track Record

According to Seasonax, which analyzed 95 years of S&P 500 data, the Santa Rally has been surprisingly consistent. Between Dec. 20 and Jan. 4, the S&P 500 rose 75.79% of the time, posting an average gain of 1.7%.

That's 72 advances versus just 23 declines across nearly a century of market history.

Some years have been memorable. The strongest Santa Rally on record came in 1991, when the S&P 500 climbed nearly 8% between Dec. 20 and Jan. 6, 1992.

On the downside, losses have generally been limited, ...