The AI arms race is heating up, and its effects are starting to show up where investors actually care, on the Big Tech balance sheets.

According to UBS, global AI capex is now expected to hit $423 billion in 2025, and $571 billion in 2026. By 2030, UBS expects spending to reach $1.3 trillion, implying a 25% compound annual growth rate.

Those numbers aren't abstract anymore. They're turning into debt issuance, lease obligations, and quietly rising financial risk. The era of funding AI infrastructure with excess cash is over.

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Meta (NASDAQ:META), and Oracle (NYSE:ORCL)  are all spending aggressively, but they are not absorbing the costs equally.

Cash Flow Leaders

Alphabet is in the cleanest position by far. As of its most recent earnings, the company held nearly $100 billion in cash and marketable securities against just over $20 billion in debt. Furthermore, it generated around $48 billion in operating cash flow in a single quarter.

Capex remains well below ...