For the first time in history, U.S. holiday spending is projected to surpass the $1 trillion milestone. 

COST stock is moving. See the chart and price action here. 

Total sales for November and December 2025 are on track to reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, representing a year-over-year increase of 3.7% to 4.2%, according to the National Retail Federation. 

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Nominal Growth Trap

While the headline figure is historic, economists warn that these gains are largely “nominal.”

The surge is driven mostly by inflation and tariff-related price hikes and less by an increase in the volume of goods sold. 

With retail price inflation ...