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Jan 16, 2026 4:00 PM

JP Morgan Predicts Mixed Q4 Steel Earnings Despite Steel Rally

Earnings season is approaching, with major North American steel companies gearing up to release results in the coming weeks.

JP Morgan analyst Bill Peterson notes that Steel equities have outperformed, rising 17% over the past three months versus the State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF’s (NYSE:XME) 15%, supported by a supply-driven rally in Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices (+17%) despite weak underlying demand.

Notably, HRC metal margins have expanded more than 20% relative to pre-tariff levels, while post-tariff mill utilization is roughly 160 basis points above historical norms, adds the analyst.

Forward demand indicators are mixed, as medium- and smaller-scale buyers adjust to trade uncertainty, says the analyst.

However, the ...