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Feb 20, 2026 12:00 PM

US GDP Growth Sharply Slows To 1.4% In Q4, Fed's Favorite Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Rises (UPDATED)

Editor’s note: This story was updated to add details, context.

U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to advance estimates released Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The figure marks a sharp slowdown from the prior quarter's 4.4% expansion pace and came in sharply below economists' expectations for 3% growth.

In a separate release, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index inched up from 2.8% year-over-year in November to 2.9% in December, surpassing forecasts of an unchanged reading.

On a monthly basis, headline PCE climbed 0.4% in December, the fastest pace since February and above the 0.3% forecast. It followed a 0.2% gain in November.

Excluding food and energy, core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, advanced to 3% from 2.8%, topping expectations for an acceleration to 2.9%.

On a monthly basis, core PCE increased 0.4%, topping expectations for 0.3% and marking the strongest gain since February.

The data reinforces recent warnings ...