The first two months of 2026 have produced a sector divergence not seen on Wall Street since the shock of February 2022.

Back then, Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a violent rotation into energy and commodities.

Oil spiked. Defense stocks surged. Technology sold off on inflationary concerns.

Now it's happening again, but for a very different reason.

Through Feb. 26, 2026, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE) has outperformed the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK) by 27 percentage points.

That is the largest two-month performance gap between Energy and Technology since February 2022.

The contrast becomes even more dramatic when you line up the VanEck Oil Services ETF (NYSE:OIH) against the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (NYSE:IGV): over just two months, the performance gap has blown out to a staggering 80 percentage points.

Unlike four years ago, there has been no oil supply shock, no sudden war escalation and no surge in crude comparable to the post-invasion spike.

Instead, the growing gap between energy and tech reflects a new shift, ...