Cocoa futures have lost nearly 70% of their value since hitting an all-time high of around $12,000 per metric ton in late 2024, sliding to under $3,000 as of early March. For those who winced at a $50 box of full-size chocolate bars last Halloween, or noticed Reese’s getting smaller without getting cheaper, that sounds like relief on the way. But experts say not yet.

The U.S. is the world’s largest chocolate market in terms of revenue, and American brands absorbed the full force of the cocoa price spike. Hershey (NYSE:HSY) raised prices. In February, Cadbury-owner Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ) forecasted a subdued 2026 as price hikes turn away cost‑conscious shoppers.

Now, even as raw material costs fall, there’s a significant lag built into the system. The largest manufacturers hedged their cocoa exposure months in advance. This means many are still sitting on inventory locked in at last year’s elevated prices.

Consumers won’t feel the difference until those hedges roll off, which, for most major players, means late 2026 at the earliest and, more meaningfully, in 2027, according to industry analysts.

The Demand That Didn’t Return

Two years of elevated prices changed how Americans buy chocolate. Consumers switched to private-label alternatives, bought less, or left the category entirely during peak holiday periods.

Edward Nikulin, head of trading at European broker Mind Money and a weather-model specialist who closely tracks soft-commodity markets, sees this as more than a temporary pullback. “These are not marginal adjustments but signals of demand destruction,” he says, which is “a force powerful enough to reprice even structurally tight markets.”

The shift in American buying behaviour has been particularly telling. U.S. shoppers moved toward bulk ...