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Mar 13, 2026 12:00 PM

GDP Revision Shock, Sticky Inflation Fan Stagflation Fears: What's Moving Markets Friday?

U.S. equities traded in mixed territory Friday morning as Wall Street weighed a stark downward revision to fourth-quarter economic growth against a sticky inflation reading prior to the oil shock of the war in Iran.

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth-quarter 2025 GDP growth to 0.7% annualized, down 0.7 percentage points from its advance estimate.

The January Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, showed 3.1% annual increase, up from the previous 3%. The data marks a further departure from the Fed’s 2% target.

Weakening growth alongside persistent inflation, amplified by University of Michigan survey data showing rising price expectations since the Iran-U.S. conflict began, is reigniting stagflation fears.

On the oil market front, Washington temporarily eased sanctions on Russian crude to expand global supply, but Iran-U.S. tensions continued to threaten Persian Gulf energy flows and kept crude prices elevated.

The West Texas Intermediate held near $95 a barrel, broadly unchanged for the day. Meanwhile, Brent crude returned above $100 a barrel.

By midday in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% to 46,820, the S&P 500 held essentially flat ...