Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) has fallen 15% from its October high of $212.19, dragged down by a cocktail of AI disruption fears, the Iran oil shock and broader market anxiety. 

But buried beneath the sell-off, there may be a buying signal that has historically rewarded patient investors, if you connect the dots.

NVDA stock is moving. See the chart and price action here. 

The signal comes from Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Andrew Slimmon, a senior portfolio manager who recently published his latest equity commentary. 

To be clear, Slimmon doesn’t mention Nvidia by name. His argument is about the broader market. But it applies to Nvidia with striking relevance.

The Stock-Picking Trifecta 

Slimmon tracks what he calls the “trifecta” of stock-picking factors: momentum, earnings revisions, and share buybacks.

Of these, earnings revisions, the pattern where analysts raise profit forecasts for a company, and the stock price follows, is normally one of the most reliable predictors of future returns. When Wall Street upgrades its earnings outlook for a stock, the price tends to rise in step.

Right now, that relationship has broken. Earnings revisions have been one of ...