The spread between stocks that benefit from a closed Strait of Hormuz and those that need it open has ballooned to more than 32 percentage points, a divergence that suggests investors are repositioning for a conflict measured in months, not days.
A basket of 10 names positioned for a closed or severely disrupted Strait, energy refiners, fertilizer producers, chemicals, defense and drone companies, has risen an average of 17.55%.
A basket of 10 names positioned for Gulf shipping normalization, cruise lines, airlines, logistics companies and gold, has fallen an average of 15.35%.
Hormuz ‘Reopen’ vs. ‘Closed’ Stock Basket Comparison: How These 20 Stocks Fared So Far
Source: Country ETF Tracker’s Iran War Market Screener
The ‘Hormuz Closed’ Basket: Who Wins When Strait Stays Shut
Energy refiners, fertilizer producers, defense-adjacent technology companies, and drone manufacturers dominate this basket.
Their shared characteristic: each benefits directly or indirectly from elevated oil prices, maritime disruption, or increased military spending.
Company
Sector
Return Since Feb. 27 close
Red Cat Holdings (NASDAQ:RCAT)
Defense / Drones
+40.95%
CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF)
Fertilizers / Nat. Gas
+25.53%
LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE:LYB)
Petrochemicals
+24.13%
Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC)
Refining
+18.15%
Karman Space & Defense (NYSE:KRMN)
Defense / Aerospace
+16.06%
Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO)
Refining
+15.44%
Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR)
Defense Tech / AI
+12.84%
Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX)
Refining / Midstream
+12.25%
Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX)
Integrated Energy
+6.33%
Mosaic Co. (NYSE:MOS)
Fertilizers / Potash
+3.81%
Red Cat Holdings leads the basket with a 40.95% gain, a striking move driven ...
