President Donald Trump claimed a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, but hours after the announcement, Iran and Gulf Arab countries continued to report new attacks on Wednesday. Still, crude markets repriced without waiting for confirmation.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures, as closely tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), dropped 17% to $93 a barrel early Wednesday morning in New York. They’re on pace for their worst single-session decline since April 2020, igniting a broad pre-market relief rally that sent S&P 500 futures up nearly 3%.

The move is a direct position unwind: traders who had priced in a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption, through which roughly 20% of global seaborne oil passes, are now aggressively reversing those positions. Brent crude followed in lockstep.

Details Following Ceasefire Claims Remain Unclear

At 6:32 p.m. ET Tuesday, shortly before his own 8 p.m. ET deadline to “destroy a whole civilization,” Trump posted on Truth Social:

“Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided ceasefire!”

But sporadic Iran–Israel attacks continued into Wednesday, according ...