Something has been happening to American Express Co. (NYSE:AXP) every spring for a quarter century.

Starting around April 14, the stock tends to climb, not every single year, but with a consistency that stands out across rate cycles, recessions and geopolitical shocks.

Data from Seasonax, which tracks 25 years of AXP trading behavior, identifies an April 14 to June 7 window as one of the most reliable seasonal patterns in the financial sector.

Over that stretch, the stock has delivered a positive return 20 out of 25 times, an 80% win rate, with an average gain of 7.27% per trade.

The Numbers Behind the Amex Spring Trade

Metric

Value

Average Return

7.27%

Median Return

6.56%

Win rate

80% | Gains 20/25

Best trade

+39.17% (2009)

Worst trade

−18.83% (2010)

Source: Seasonax · 25-year study (Apr 2001, Apr 2026) · NYSE: AXP

What the Pattern Actually Looks ...