Gasoline prices posted their largest single-month increase since the Bureau of Labor Statistics first published the series in 1967, surging 21.2% in March as the conflict disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
That one number, gasoline, accounted for nearly three-quarters of the entire 0.9% monthly headline CPI increase, which is the steepest monthly jump since June 2022.
It is also the most direct measure yet of how a geopolitical shock 7,000 miles away is repricing life in the United States.
Chart: March Inflation Logs Highest Monthly Jump Since June 2022
From $2.98 To $4.15, Trump Broke The Pump
On Feb. 26, the day before the Iran war began, the national average price for regular gasoline stood at $2.98 per gallon, according to AAA data.
It now stands at $4.153. That is a 39% increase in roughly six weeks, the fastest peacetime gasoline price shock in modern American history.
Think of it this way: the average American drives about 15,000 miles a year and gets around 28 miles per gallon.
At $2.98, that was a roughly $1,600 annual fuel bill. At $4.15, it is now $2,200. The war has cost the average driver an extra $600 a year, and counting.
The energy index as a whole surged 10.9% in March, its largest monthly move since September 2005. Beyond gasoline, fuel oil rose 30.7%, its sharpest monthly climb since February 2000.
Airline fares jumped 2.7%, the first visible signal of jet fuel costs passing through into consumer services, with jet fuel prices up 75% since the start of the war according to Goldman Sachs.
AAA National Pump Prices, April 10, 2026
Grade
Current Avg.
Regular
$4.153
Mid-Grade
$4.668
Premium
$5.033
Diesel
$5.683
E85
$3.303
Source: AAA
What Are Economists Saying?
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said “at least eighty percent” of the 0.9% monthly CPI increase was energy-related, rising even higher if airfares are included given transportation’s 16% weight in the index. ...
