That is the central finding of a Bank of America research note published Monday by analyst Sara Senatore, who tracked BAC aggregated credit and debit card data across every major fuel price cycle since 2005.
Her conclusion: spending on gasoline increases almost as fast as the gas price itself, meaning consumers keep driving and absorb the cost, then quietly reallocate what’s left.
Discretionary categories take the hit. Casual dining contracts. Airlines slow. Auto spending falls to less than half its long-run rate.
But one category breaks the pattern every single time: quick-service restaurants, with pizza chains leading the acceleration.
Gas Demand Is Inelastic, Your Wallet Isn’t
The first and most important finding is structural. When gas prices rise, consumers do not meaningfully cut back on how much they drive.
Bank of America card data shows that gasoline spending grows almost as fast as the gas price itself, meaning that quantity adjustments are small even during periods when prices surge sharply.
The pump gets paid. Everything else gets squeezed.
That squeeze is not evenly distributed. According to Senatore’s analysis, discretionary spending growth slows to an annualized rate of 2.9% during high-gas-price periods, against a long-term compound annual growth rate of 3.6%.
Non-gas necessities such as groceries and utilities slow more modestly, to 2.7% against a 3.1% CAGR. The largest single-category slowdown is auto-related spending, which decelerates to 0.9% against a 2.4% baseline.
Restaurants as a broad category slow too, from 5.3% to 4.5%. But within restaurants, the numbers diverge sharply.
The Trade-Down That Runs To The Drive-Through
Casual dining contracts to an annualized −1.1% during gas spikes. Fast casual slows to 4.0% from a 5.6% baseline.
Meanwhile, QSR, quickservice restaurants, or fast ...
