The chipmaker is on track to its best single month in nearly four decades after a cascade of catalysts ranging from the Terafab AI manufacturing partnership to analyst upgrades.
Since the stock went public in 1972, a monthly rally of 45% or more has happened exactly five times, including now.
The key question right now: Is this a rally to chase, or to doubt?
A Signal So Rare It Only Happened 4 Times Before
The TradingView forward-returns event study, which scans every monthly candle in Intel’s recorded history for rallies of 45% or more, surfaces just four completed historical instances before the current one.
Each episode unfolded during periods of severe dislocations: the early-1970s bear market, the 1974 oil-shock recovery, and the aftermath of Black Monday in 1987.
The event-study data, what statisticians call a “forward return analysis”, measures how the stock performed in the months after each signal triggered.
Think of it as asking: every time Intel did this before, what happened next?
Episode
Move %
1M %
3M %
6M %
12M %
July 1973
+62.7%
+38.5%
+20.2%
+89.0%
−17.4%
October 1974
+63.0%
−11.8%
+1.7%
+121.0%
+142.0%
February 1975
+47.1%
+18.5%
+57.3%
+66.9%
+144.9%
January 1987
+48.8%
+21.6%
+50.4%
+52.8%
+22.4%
April 2026 ← Current
+47.2%
—
—
—
—
AVG (prior 4)
—
+16.7%
+32.4%
+82.4%
+73.0%
MEDIAN
—
+20.1%
+35.3%
+77.9%
+82.2%
WIN RATE
—
75%
100%
100%
75%
The numbers are striking.
In the three- and six-month periods following a 45% monthly rally, Intel has been higher every single time, a 100% win rate across just four prior episodes. The median six-month gain across those episodes was 77.9%. The median 12-month return was 82.2%.
The momentum playbook says: when Intel does this, it tends not to stop.
The Valuation Wall: Intel Is Now The 4th Most Expensive S&P 500 Stock
Here is the tension.
Intel now trades at 125.2 times forward earnings, the fourth-highest forward price-to-earnings multiple ...
