Fear is unwinding as fast as it built.

The CBOE Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, Wall Street’s real-time gauge of expected equity market volatility, collapsed 44% over the three weeks ending April 17, 2026. The gauge hit a nine-week low of 16.87 Friday as Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. President Donald Trump announced Tehran had agreed to never close the waterway again.

A drop of that magnitude over a three-week window is rare.

History suggests what follows tends to be positive and durable for equity markets.

A Rare Signal: Only Seven Prior Episodes Since 1970

A TradingView event study analyzing every instance of a three-week VIX rate of change dropping at or below negative 40% since 1970 identified just seven prior episodes.

The current reading of negative 43.74 joins that list as the eighth.

Date

VIX 3-Week Move %

Catalyst

Jan 14, 2013

−45.16%

U.S. fiscal cliff crisis resolved

Nov 3, 2014

−40.34%

Mid-cycle growth scare; Ebola fears and slowing global demand faded

Jul 11, 2016

−50.82%

Brexit vote shock absorbed; central banks signaled accommodation

Nov 21, 2016

−45.18%

U.S. presidential election; markets pivoted to ...