The prevailing Wall Street narrative around space, that ever-cheaper rides to orbit will unlock everything from megaconstellations to orbital data centers, is colliding with reality on the launch pad.

ASTS stock is down. See the chart and price action here. 

According to Bank of America’s takeaways from the 41st Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, spacecraft operators are flagging launch access as the single biggest bottleneck. 

Far from falling, launch prices are climbing. 

Some buyers are planning around roughly 10% annual launch price hikes over the next five years, and certain manifests are booked solid two to three years out.

The math is already showing up at the market leader. 

SpaceX in late February raised dedicated Falcon 9 pricing to $74 million from $70 million, with rideshare rates moving to $7,000/kg from $6,000/kg.

Why Capacity Is So Tight

Here are some forces squeezing the launch market:

New entrants keep slipping. Blue Origin‘s New Glenn, after years of delays, just stranded an AST SpaceMobile Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) satellite in the wrong orbit on its third commercial flight. 

The successful providers are eating their own supply. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 cadence is plateauing this year as the company shifts focus to Starship, even as Starlink consumes the bulk of available slots. 

Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ:RKLB)‘s  medium-lift Neutron rocket, the most ...