The latest BofA’s May Global Fund Manager Survey identified “long global semiconductors” as the most crowded trade in survey history at 73%. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield just reached a 19-year high, hitting 5.2%.
Options markets are pricing an 8.65% post-earnings move for Nvidia stock in either direction.
What the company says Wednesday night, and how it guides for the quarter ahead, will set the tone for the rest of 2026 across semiconductors, AI infrastructure and the broader tape.
What Wall Street Expects Ahead of Nvidia Earnings
According to Benzinga Pro, the Street expects Nvidia to print quarterly earnings per share of $1.76 on revenue of $78.67 billion.
That would mark a 117% increase in earnings from the prior-year quarter, when Nvidia reported EPS of 81 cents and revenue of $44.06 billion, and a 79% jump in revenue.
Bank of America semiconductor analyst Vivek Arya, who expressed a Buy rating and $320 price target, said Nvidia is his “top pick” heading into the print.
Nvidia’s last 10 historical beats have averaged 7-8% above guidance, which would imply $83-84 billion in sales, Arya said.
According to the expert, there are five key debates that will decide the print and the rest of the AI trade.
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1. Nvidia’s Cash Returns
Nvidia’s “large existing positioning often acts as a headwind,” Arya said. The stock now represents 8.3% of the S&P 500, above the peak weightings of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) in June 2023 and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) in November 2023. Active fund manager ownership sits near 78%.
The ...
