According to Benzinga Pro estimates, Wall Street is expecting the world’s most valued company to report $78.8 billion in revenue and $1.77 in adjusted earnings per share for the January-March period, implying roughly 78% revenue growth and a 119% surge in EPS from the same quarter of 2025.
If achieved, it would mark the largest quarterly revenue print ever generated by a semiconductor company.
On paper, the setup looks straightforward.
Nvidia has beaten revenue estimates in each of the last 17 quarters. The company also topped EPS expectations in 15 of those 17 reports.
But the historical trading data show something important has changed.
The market is no longer rewarding Nvidia simply for beating estimates.
Nvidia Historical Earnings Scorecard: Perfect On Revenue, Punished Anyway
Across the last 17 quarterly reports, Nvidia produced a perfect 100% revenue beat rate and an 88% EPS beat rate.
The only two EPS misses came during the 2022 semiconductor downturn, when collapsing gaming demand and the implosion of crypto-mining pressured results.
On average, Nvidia exceeded revenue expectations by 5.3% and EPS estimates by 7.8%.
Those are extraordinary numbers for a mega-cap company already operating at massive scale.
But the stock reaction has become less automatic.
Quarter
Report Date
Reported EPS
Reported Rev.
EPS Surp.
Rev Surp.
NVDA Stock Reaction: 1-Day
7-Day
30-Day
4Q FY26
02-25-2026
$1.62
$68.13B
+5.3%
+2.9%
-5.46%
-9.07%
-5.96%
3Q FY26
11-19-2025
$1.30
$57.01B
+3.5%
+3.7%
-3.15%
-3.54%
+0.86%
2Q FY26
08-27-2025
$1.05
$46.74B
+4.1%
+1.5%
-0.79%
-7.32%
+6.04%
1Q FY26
05-28-2025
$0.81
$44.06B
+8.0%
+1.9%
+3.25%
+5.13%
+22.34%
4Q FY25
02-26-2025
$0.89
$39.33B
+5.3%
+3.1%
-8.48%
-14.16%
-12.91%
3Q FY25
11-20-2024
$0.81
$35.08B
+8.5%
+5.8%
+0.53%
-4.98%
+2.43%
2Q FY25
08-28-2024
$0.68
$30.04B
+5.7%
+4.5%
-6.38%
-15.24%
+7.32%
1Q FY25
05-22-2024
$0.61
$26.04B
+9.7%
+6.0%
+9.32%
+21.12%
+35.02%
4Q FY24
02-21-2024
$0.52
$22.10B
+11.4%
+7.6%
+16.40%
+21.95%
+27.32%
3Q FY24
11-21-2023
$0.40
$18.12B
+18.7%
+12.5%
-2.46%
-6.37%
-1.70%
2Q FY24
08-23-2023
$0.27
$13.51B
+29.4%
+21.9%
+0.10%
+2.96%
-5.15%
1Q FY24
05-24-2023
$0.11
$7.19B
+18.9%
+10.3%
+24.37%
+28.27%
+38.12%
4Q FY23
02-22-2023
$0.09
$6.05B
+9.5%
+0.5%
+14.02%
+15.11%
+29.52%
3Q FY23
11-16-2022
$0.06
$5.93B
-17.4%
+1.9%
-1.46%
-0.52%
-8.15%
2Q FY23
08-24-2022
$0.05
$6.70B
-1.6%
+0.1%
+4.01%
-20.76%
-23.76%
1Q FY23
05-25-2022
$0.14
$8.29B
+4.9%
+2.4%
+5.16%
+10.67%
-10.74%
4Q FY22
02-16-2022
$0.13
$7.64B
+7.9%
+2.9%
-7.56%
-8.02%
+2.92%
Source: Koyfin, Tradingview
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