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May 21, 2026 12:00 PM

Elon Musk Mega-Merger? Dan Ives Puts SpaceX Tesla Tie-Up Odds At 80%

Elon Musk's corporate universe could be headed for its biggest combination yet, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who is now putting an 80% probability on a Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and SpaceX merger.

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Ives made the call in a Wednesday note after SpaceX officially filed its S-1 to go public, a move Wedbush called the largest IPO in stock market history and a "major moment" for space and tech. 

The analyst also repeated the merger view during an appearance on Anthony Pompliano's podcast, saying the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX combination are now about 80%.

Dan Ives believes there is an 80% chance that SpaceX merges with Tesla in 2027.$TSLA https://t.co/hl1u8yeQVR pic.twitter.com/K42iXCIaGY

— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) May 21, 2026

Wedbush expects the two Musk-led companies to merge in 2027 after the SpaceX IPO, arguing that the connective tissue between the businesses is already being built. 

The firm pointed to Tesla's existing stake in SpaceX, which resulted from Tesla's $2 billion investment in xAI being converted into SpaceX shares following SpaceX's acquisition of xAI ...