The Financial Architecture of a 2027 Merger
A large-scale 2027 merger would be significantly more difficult without a public valuation for SpaceX to establish transparent share-based exchange ratios. This is why Wall Street analysts, including Wedbush's Dan Ives, now place the probability of a combination as high as 80% to 90%. His reasoning is straightforward. SpaceX's IPO establishes the financial architecture for a deal. Once SpaceX is publicly valued, the exchange ratios and share-based mechanics of a combination become executable. “I think that's the step process they'll go through,” Ives said, “and then ultimately a merger with Tesla. I think 80%, 90% type of chance.” Ives also maintains an Outperform rating on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) with a $600 price target.
Not everyone shares that read. Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth Management, has argued that the transaction would function less like a merger of equals and more like an acquisition of Tesla by SpaceX. Gerber has also raised conflict-of-interest concerns given Musk's simultaneous leadership of both companies. The contrast matters for investors because the structure of any deal would determine whether Tesla shareholders gain or dilute.
Terafab Is Already Building the Bridge
The most concrete sign of convergence is not a filing or a forecast, but a facility. In March 2026, Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI ...
