Meta (NASDAQ:META) delivered a Q1 result that most managers would frame and hang on the wall. Revenue surged 33% year-over-year, passing $56 billion. Gross margins held at nearly 82%, while average revenue per user climbed 28.2% to hit $15.82.

Everything pointed to the continuation of the monetization streak that turned Meta into one of the best advertising machines in corporate history.

Yet, investors were unimpressed. The stock remains down around 6.5% year-to-date.

Why? Because Wall Street stopped caring about the present the moment Mark Zuckerberg opened the capital expenditure firehose.

Capex Escalation 

Meta has lifted its 2026 capex guidance to between $125 and $145 billion, nearly double last year's spending pace. As recently as 2023, Meta's entire annual capex totaled around $28 billion. Today, that figure isn't far from the spread between the low and high end of its guidance.

That race is creating a massive disconnect between the company’s current fundamentals and the market's tolerance for uncertainty. The core ad engine is still humming. Ad impressions rose 19%, average ad prices climbed 12%, and North American ARPU has nearly doubled over the past three years. By traditional metrics, this business looks elite.

But investors increasingly want a cleaner answer ...