That is the key argument emerging from a new weekly analysis by Jordi Visser, head of AI Macro Nexus Research at 22V Research, who says the market is underestimating the physical-world constraints behind the AI buildout.
"The deeper point is that this is a physical-world capex cycle, not a software one," Visser said.
According to the expert, only about 12% to 18% of a projected $8 trillion AI infrastructure buildout has been completed so far, even as signs of stress are already appearing across supply chains.
The bottlenecks are everywhere: high-bandwidth memory chips, liquid cooling systems, copper, fiber, substations, gas turbines and power infrastructure.
Visser warns that companies sitting on enormous backlogs face revenue-recognition risk, the gap between an order Wall Street has already capitalized and a product not yet shipped.
Yet, the expert reiterated that investors treating the AI rally like a traditional speculative bubble are missing the real risk.
"This isn't a call to abandon the trade," he said. "It's a call to respect risk/reward."
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