When Uber (NYSE:UBER) announced its expanded robotaxi plan with Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) on April 14, the headline looked like a clear Silicon Valley winner.

With a 35,000 autonomous vehicles deal, a fresh $200 million equity injection, and another $550 million from Saudi Arabia's Ayar, the ride-hailing giant's stake in the EV maker climbed to around 11.5%.

In theory, this deal was supposed to validate Lucid's future as a serious player in autonomous mobility. In practice, investors treated it like a distress flare.

Shares bled for weeks, eventually hitting a low of $5.61 on May 19 before rebounding. Overall, the stock is down around 45% year-to-date and a staggering 92.7% since its IPO during the euphoric SPAC era of 2021.

The problem is simple. Building robotaxis isn't software. It's manufacturing.

The Upfront Risk

Uber's broader autonomous strategy reportedly involves more than $10 billion in commitments. Around $7.5 billion is for fleet expansion, and another $2.5 billion is for partner equity investments. The plan is to have an ecosystem of 100,000 level 4-capable robotaxis across 30 cities by 2028.

The plan sounds futuristic, ...