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Jun 4, 2026 8:00 AM

Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down Today?

The S&P 500 snapped a nine-session winning streak on Wednesday as rising oil prices and Treasury yields pressured equities. Polymarket traders are overwhelmingly betting on another weak start for the benchmark index.

The S&P 500 fell 0.74% to 7,553.68 on Wednesday, retreating from record highs reached earlier this week. The June 4 Polymarket contract implied just a 14% probability that the index will open higher on Thursday.

Why That Number Matters

Wednesday’s selloff came as investors reacted to escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.

Oil prices climbed after Iran struck Kuwait International Airport and the U.S. carried out additional “self-defense strikes” on Qeshm Island. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.41%, while Brent crude gained 1.89%.

Higher oil prices ...