NYU Stern Professor Aswath Damodaran, who is also known as the “Dean of Valuation,” says that he will avoid participating in the upcoming SpaceX IPO, citing several issues with the commercial space flight giant.

Narrative-Driven Value

In a thread on the social media platform X on Thursday, Damodaran shared a detailed view on the upcoming SpaceX IPO. “The value of SpaceX is driven by narrative,” the professor said in one of the posts on the thread.

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The value of SpaceX is driven by narrative, and there are three spokes to the story – target revenues that frame the revenue growth input, target margins driving profitability and reinvestment, determining cash flows. https://t.co/zRjpD1C0wv pic.twitter.com/u2Ym8XP9Qm

— Aswath Damodaran (@AswathDamodaran) June 4, 2026

Damodaran outlined concerns with the $28.5 trillion total addressable market (TAM), of which $26 trillion hinges on artificial intelligence. “The total addressable market (TAM) in the prospectus for the three businesses push into fantasy land for AI ($26 trillion) and the limits of plausible for space and connectivity,” he said.

In the blog post, he shared that he disagreed with the TAM estimates, instead touting a TAM for the company’s exploits at “about $3 trillion to $4 trillion.” Damodaran also said that ...