SpaceX is set to price its shares on June 11 and begin trading June 12, with OpenAI and Anthropic expected to follow later in the year. Together, the three could raise about $200 billion.
At a targeted $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX would be the biggest initial public offering ever.
Most coverage keeps asking the same thing: is SpaceX too expensive? The more useful question is how you judge any hyped listing.
David Holtzman, who has served as a technological advisor to the White House under three presidential terms, has a framework for that.
He served as an IBM chief scientist, ran core internet infrastructure during Y2K, and watched the dot-com boom inflate and collapse up close.
In a recent interview, he laid out three filters that still work long after the debut leaves the headlines.
David Holtzman’s 15-second test for the SpaceX IPO
Holtzman’s first filter comes from Steve Jobs.
His rule: explain what a company does, to someone outside finance, in 15 seconds.
“If you want to invest in a company, sit down with your mother and try to explain to them in 15 seconds what that company does. And if you can’t do it, don’t put any money into the company.”
By that measure, SpaceX (SPCX) clears the bar. It commercialized the space program and runs Starlink, the satellite internet service.
In summary, confusion is a red flag. If you cannot describe a business plainly, the people running it may not understand it either.
Why real demand separates SpaceX from the next pets.com
Holtzman’s second filter is a warning: no amount of money can create demand if there isn’t any.
He points to Meta (NASDAQ:META), whose Reality Labs metaverse unit ...
