SpaceX will debut under the ticker SPCX at $135 per share, with options trading set to begin on Monday. The first few minutes are expected to be chaotic as market makers establish price discovery.
Volatility could be extreme, but excitement will certainly be even higher.
Yet, spectacle aside, investors must understand the truth – SpaceX is not quite the company they're being asked to believe it is.
Pricing The Story
The IPO prospectus presents a civilization-scale artificial intelligence platform with a $28.5 trillion total addressable market (TAM). The financial statements tell a different story. SpaceX today is primarily a satellite internet provider wrapped in an AI narrative, with two capital-intensive moonshots attached.
That distinction matters, but according to Vuk Vukovic, CIO of a NYC-based hedge fund, Oraclum Capital, perhaps not immediately.
The company’s headline TAM breaks down into three categories: $370 billion tied to launch services and national security, $1.6 trillion from Starlink connectivity, and an eye-popping $26.5 trillion attributed to artificial intelligence.
AI alone represents 93% of the opportunity being sold to investors, and those numbers are hard to justify. As much as $22.7 trillion comes from "enterprise applications"—a market larger than the GDP of every country on earth except the U.S. and China.
This isn’t a forecast. It’s a storytelling device designed to shift attention away from today’s revenues and make a 94-times-sales valuation appear reasonable.
"When the addressable market is 1,500 times current revenue, management is asking you to ...
